Are we starting to see the wage increase vs inflation increase death spiral?

Soldato
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Mr Wong no disrespect but i assume you are very young and lack life experience.
Get the Masters and go forth and multiply.
Wherever that puts you.
The UK needs political and tax system economical reform to bring it to the 21st century but no government has the balls.
There's going to be more and more of these young angry Conservatives in the next few years....slowly coming to the realisation of how disastrous the last decade or so of economic and political mismanagement has been for the UK.

12 years of the Conservatives, and what have we gained, what has improved? Social care system is broken. Health service is broken. Criminal justice system is broken. Property market is broken. Trading environment is a disaster. Vast amounts of new red tape for business. Massive staff and skills shortages. Lowest growth in the advanced economies. All the things the Conservatives are 'supposed' to be good for, they have abjectly failed at.

All of which have left us utterly in the **** when it comes to dealing with external crises like Ukraine.

It's very hard to not just say well I'm alright Jack, you lot learn your lesson the hard way, the rest of us have had to put up with our quality of life and prospects being undermined for a decade. Tough luck.
 
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To where though? Think about 50 years ago when alot of countries were touting for skilled immigrants. Australia or Canada for example.

Now those places are tightening themselves down - they've got enough people and they don't want to create welfare problems for themselves. And they are just as expensive as here.

I don't think there are any easy routes now. Other countries have caught up, they don't need our skills anymore, they have surpassed our level.

The UK's success was all to do with its overseas ambition, and we've slowly but surely given all that away and now we're becoming insignificant.
There are plenty of countries to go to if you have the right skills.
 
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To where though? Think about 50 years ago when alot of countries were touting for skilled immigrants. Australia or Canada for example.

Now those places are tightening themselves down - they've got enough people and they don't want to create welfare problems for themselves. And they are just as expensive as here.

I don't think there are any easy routes now. Other countries have caught up, they don't need our skills anymore, they have surpassed our level.

The UK's success was all to do with its overseas ambition, and we've slowly but surely given all that away and now we're becoming insignificant.
People emigrate from one country to another all the time. Learn a skill in demand in that country and apply. e.g. demand in the US for IT skills. Or get into the UK power industry - everywhere in the world needs experts in energy.
 
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There's going to be more and more of these young angry Conservatives in the next few years....slowly coming to the realisation of how disastrous the last decade or so of economic and political mismanagement has been for the UK.

12 years of the Conservatives, and what have we gained, what has improved? Social care system is broken. Health service is broken. Criminal justice system is broken. Property market is broken. Trading environment is a disaster. Vast amounts of new red tape for business. Massive staff and skills shortages. Lowest growth in the advanced economies. All the things the Conservatives are 'supposed' to be good for, they have abjectly failed at.

All of which have left us utterly in the **** when it comes to dealing with external crises like Ukraine.

It's very hard to not just say well I'm alright Jack, you lot learn your lesson the hard way, the rest of us have had to put up with our quality of life and prospects being undermined for a decade. Tough luck.
That is why you pick up and go, if you want to have any opportunity,
40 years ago postal workers used to be buying houses, the same houses are now worth £1.6 million, no chance of postal workers buying.
 
Soldato
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They can if the people force it onto them, but with the current cognitive abilities in this country , I do not see it.
I think ( :p ) Efours point was that you have to look after yourself in this world. No one else will, because they are to busy looking after themselves. . You can shout and scream at the ones at the top, and the injustice of it all, but that's not actually going to help 'you'...
 
Soldato
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To where though? Think about 50 years ago when alot of countries were touting for skilled immigrants. Australia or Canada for example.

Now those places are tightening themselves down - they've got enough people and they don't want to create welfare problems for themselves. And they are just as expensive as here.

I don't think there are any easy routes now. Other countries have caught up, they don't need our skills anymore, they have surpassed our level.

The UK's success was all to do with its overseas ambition, and we've slowly but surely given all that away and now we're becoming insignificant.
I'm still mad at my dad for not taking the 'ten pound pom' route to Australia, he changed his mind at the last minute. The opportunites offered to people in the past were quite amazing.
 
Soldato
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I'm still mad at my dad for not taking the 'ten pound pom' route to Australia, he changed his mind at the last minute. The opportunites offered to people in the past were quite amazing.
That's exactly my point. There are still opportunities today but they are far more complex and less 'in bulk'. The easy routes have gone. Just like the easy routes into nice houses, the easy routes into good pension schemes etc.

In the past people could broadly benefit in bulk from reasonable policies, now reducing opportunity and increasing competition have made it every man for himself instead.

Could argue this is just convergence to efficient, but it begs the question where is the next step change going to come from and how far away is it.
 
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My personal view in a micro is that expecting wages to rise with inflation is predisposed on the (sometime false) assumption that people are paid the 'appropriate' wages to begin with.
If someone is 'overpaid' then a sub-inflation pay rise may be more than adequate. If someone is 'underpaid' than an above-inflation pay rise may be insufficient.

Obviously on a macro level this tends to even out a bit but generally I think people need to accept that that you do not have the divine right to parity of wages increases versus cost of living increases, with the possible exception of the bottom rungs (min wage, living wage etc). Sometimes things get more expensive. That means you have to get a higher paid job, tighten your belt, or just accept that you are accumulating wealth more slowly.
 
Soldato
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My personal view in a micro is that expecting wages to rise with inflation is predisposed on the (sometime false) assumption that people are paid the 'appropriate' wages to begin with.
If someone is 'overpaid' then a sub-inflation pay rise may be more than adequate. If someone is 'underpaid' than an above-inflation pay rise may be insufficient.

Obviously on a macro level this tends to even out a bit but generally I think people need to accept that that you do not have the divine right to parity of wages increases versus cost of living increases, with the possible exception of the bottom rungs (min wage, living wage etc). Sometimes things get more expensive. That means you have to get a higher paid job, tighten your belt, or just accept that you are accumulating wealth more slowly.
Can take the view that a person's wage is always right. I.e, if a company will pay it, and you will accept it, its the right number.

Like you said, if you don't think its enough, and company won't pay more, you walk.

But unions complicate that picture substantially in certain sectors which are large enough to come together and create some real issues if they act as one voice. And if employees walked all the time, companies would have massive turnover issues. So its in their interests to try and keep staff happy if they want to retain.

And from an employee perspective, factors other than wage are often important too such as job security or a friendly workplace. Many people just simply aren't so aggressive as to constantly demand wage rises even though they might deserve them.

I don't know what the answer is but I am starting to see the potential benefits to unionisation at times like these. For the past couple of decades they haven't been worth joining, but when you need a collective voice to demand pay rises then it can be very powerful.


or just accept that you are accumulating wealth more slowly.
Only problem with this last one is the unfair nature of the wealth divide. If everyone has to tighten their belts equally then people would probably accept it, but we are not all in this equally which is the issue.
 
Soldato
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It might be too late for people like you and me who are "stuck" by circumstances such as job and family. But perhaps the right approach is to start encouraging our kids to consider moving when they are young adults.
We tried moving and the problem was our job. My partner's job is best done here as most of the big clients and work is in the UK.

For me it would be a downgrade too. i wont be freelancing anymore and would have to go perm somewhere.

The grass is not always greener
 
Caporegime
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Since moving here ive always compared Sweden to an 80/90s UK.
Unions are sooo strong here.
Loads of people are employed by "the state"
But its a tiny country with a little economy and zero world clout other than its fame for importing refugees and hand grenades.
Proportional representation coalition governments that barely work...
Pretty decent health service.
silly taxes.
UK might benefit from a return to strong unions..... Ask RMT the train drivers always seem to get their pay rises.

Though i dont think British culture could revert back to that personally. Way too much bile from the current gen.
Then you got the next gen cross gender alphabet gen. coming and thats just a car crash for the whole western world.
 
Caporegime
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We tried moving and the problem was our job. My partner's job is best done here as most of the big clients and work is in the UK.

For me it would be a downgrade too. i wont be freelancing anymore and would have to go perm somewhere.

The grass is not always greener

Whats more important? You can retrain reskill, do anything you want. Sounds like you're doing just fine tbh.
All depends what you really want from life and i guess you want money more than anything else. Which is completely fine!
 
Soldato
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Whats more important? You can retrain reskill, do anything you want. Sounds like you're doing just fine tbh.
All depends what you really want from life and i guess you want money more than anything else. Which is completely fine!
different priorities.

to retrain would take years to get to a level where we are now and we kinda wanted to settle down now instead of hopping around the globe.

Maybe if we was a lto younger we may have but teh grass is not always greener and as i said way earlier on this thread, other wester countries are having identical issues as us!!!

Energy prices etc is sjy rocking everywhere and boris is not the only idiot in charge of a nation!

There is no point moving from one messed up country to another and when you look at third world countries, UK still has it good!
 

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Soldato
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Whats more important? You can retrain reskill, do anything you want. Sounds like you're doing just fine tbh.
All depends what you really want from life and i guess you want money more than anything else. Which is completely fine!

So many out there seem to want it all.
 
Soldato
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Firstly this isn't a thread to discuss if pay increases are deserved or are a reasonable request given working conditions or lack of historic increases as thats a whole new topic to go down.

However, it's to discuss the fact we are seeing more industries striking for better pay of demanding better pay in the last 4-8 weeks citing inflation and the cost of living as one of the primary reasons. While it is understandable to demand more pay during a time of inflation this in itself has the risk of pushing up labour costs and therefore prices which in turn, in theory pushes up inflation even higher, wiping out the pay increase and generate more demand for even higher wages


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A few examples of recent increases and demands are below

Given:
Sainsburys workers 5.3% increase
PWC 7-9% increase

Rejected/Demanded/Disputed:

Barristers 15% pay increase demanded
Doctors 30% over 5 years demanded
Royal mail offered 2%, offerered 5.5%, rejected both demanding higher
Rolls Royce £2000 payment offered and rejected, 4% increase rejected
Railworkers offered 2% and 4% rejected, 7% demand
British Airways demands 10% increase but only to restore this to pre covid levels
Ryan Air (unsure of demands)


Does anyone think we are on the cusp of a wage/inflation death spiral? Are we expecting more and more industries and workers to start demanding more pay? If so, what is your take on the situation and if you dont think we are at the risk of entering this spiral whats your thoughts on how we are/will avoid(ing) this?

AKA the '70's all over again. Yes. It'll remain like this until inflation is brought under control and thats not as easy as people think it took a very long time last time around and a concerted effort. Labour isn't interested and Boris is too ineffectual and frankly too incapable of doing anything to counter it so its going to be here to stay for a long time I believe and we're probably on the edge of sinking into recession. Just like the 70's.
 
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Soldato
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So many out there seem to want it all.
Human nature right?

Still here is no point moving to another county and from not counting your pennies every month to basically just about making a living in another country , thats not great at all.

There is a balance. Not many would move from a well paid decent job to stacking shelves all of a sudden in sweden or germany....

It is not easy just moving country and then there is that thing called a language barrier which you cannot learn a new language in 5mins
 
Soldato
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Maybe if we was a lto younger we may have but teh grass is not always greener and as i said way earlier on this thread, other wester countries are having identical issues as us!!!

Energy prices etc is sjy rocking everywhere and boris is not the only idiot in charge of a nation!

There is no point moving from one messed up country to another and when you look at third world countries, UK still has it good!
The grass is greener in many European countries. I would never have returned to the UK if I'd known what an absolute cluster fluff the next few years of Tory failure would be, I rather naively hoped that after the Brexit headbangers got their way, some sanity and competence would return to the party. More fool me I guess.

We've already talked about emigrating again if things don't improve in the next couple of years. It's really very easy to do if you have an in-demand skill. It'll bring into start relief what an absolute shambles the UK has become mind.
 
Soldato
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So many out there seem to want it all.
You mean like a lot of others have got?

Whats more important? You can retrain reskill, do anything you want. Sounds like you're doing just fine tbh.
All depends what you really want from life and i guess you want money more than anything else. Which is completely fine!
I would love to retrain and move. But my whole life (like many of us I imagine) is built around an income. The costs of bills, the house I've just bought, the hobbies I have (to make my pitiful life worth living).

How can you just uproot all this it's nearly impossible.

And where could you go to get cheaper living and a back to nature feel? Working rice fields in Thailand?
 
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