Pandemic 2.0?

Soldato
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Say's it's not that risky on some sites

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says the virus does not usually spread easily and the risk to people is low.

But on other sites.

Monkeypox is a rare but potentially serious viral illness that typically begins with flu-like illness and swelling of the lymph nodes and progresses to a rash on the face and body.

Estimates of the case-fatality rate for monkeypox in Africa vary from 1% to 15%, with the highest risk of death in young children. In one study of 300 patients in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the overall mortality rate was 10% and the mortality rate in unvaccinated children was 15-20%.
 
Soldato
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It's being reported in a number of developed countries now, and seems reasonable to conclude transmission has somewhat shifted from previous dynamics as it's mostly being reported in certain sexual circles

Big threat though? Don't think so. There is a vaccine (Smallpox vaccine also works to an extent) and it's not that transmissible
 
Soldato
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You're confusing how transmissible it is and the chance of it killing you if you do catch it.

Both are correct. Not very risky because it's not easily transmissible, quite risky if you do catch it with ~10% chance of death.
 
Soldato
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You're confusing how transmissible it is and the chance of it killing you if you do catch it.

Yep but the timing is pretty good, talk of covid has pretty much disappeared and Bill gates has been warning about the next pandemic which is just around the corner according to him.
 
Man of Honour
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Doesn't seem like it is easily transmissible in passing so unlikely to result in a pandemic of the likes of COVID or worse.
 
Man of Honour
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Unless this virus has seriously mutated I can't see it - it isn't easily transferred between or to fomites with just passing contact or as easily transmitted via droplet in passing, although it has a high household attack rate, making it easier to isolate outbreaks than the likes of COVID.

Those 6 passengers in the US who were on the same flight as the seemingly original case will probably stand as a litmus - if they start going down with it then we might have a problem on our hands.
 
Commissario
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Unless this virus has seriously mutated I can't see it - it isn't easily transferred between or to fomites with just passing contact or as easily transmitted via droplet in passing, although it has a high household attack rate, making it easier to isolate outbreaks than the likes of COVID.

Those 6 passengers in the US who were on the same flight as the seemingly original case will probably stand as a litmus - if they start going down with it then we might have a problem on our hands.
That was my read when I looked at how it's transmitted, it's also by the looks of it not something new so it looks like basic precautions will likely stop the spread, and spread outside of physical contact/sharing certain facilities is going to be very low.
 
Associate
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Boris, Please LOCK us down boy, for a year or so. We nee self isolation with a year supply of chesse and biscuits, downed with wine.:eek::mad::o
 
Soldato
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quite risky if you do catch it with ~10% chance of death.
*If you catch the Congo strain (the UK people have the West African strain) in an African country where healthcare is poor, your general state of health isn't good and no vaccine is made available to you

The mortality rate is somewhere between 1-10% but it's hard to say for sure because infection numbers are low

The US outbreak years ago didn't kill a single person
 
Soldato
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Radio 4 discussed this this morning. Apparently no one died in the US during an outbreak last year. I can only infer that means with good medical intervention it's not that risky.
 
Man of Honour
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whats the mortality rate when medication is available, he rate is likely inflated a lot by countries with poor to no health care?

From what I've been reading deaths are almost exclusively in certain groups where the immune system is either not developed enough or compromised - very young children, pregnant women and those with existing immunocompromising conditions and there isn't much which can be done with current understanding of the disease if those cases turn severe. For anyone else it is very rare for the disease to become life threatening.

EDIT: All bets would be off if it was a significantly mutated strain though - but not seen anything which supports that currently.
 
Man of Honour
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Yep but the timing is pretty good, talk of covid has pretty much disappeared and Bill gates has been warning about the next pandemic which is just around the corner according to him.

He really went there, even got Bill Gates in.
I'd hate to live in jsmoke's mind.

Covid hasn't disappeared, we still have around 200 Covid patients in our hospital, way less deadly though.
 
Soldato
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I've yet to see anything good come out of Africa, save an international flight home if you are someone unfortunate enough to have had to go there ;) It's the Petri dish for all things unwanted.
 
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