Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Associate
Joined
18 Jan 2015
Posts
1,329
Global downturn has very much already started but its going to get a lot worse over the next year or so IMO.

People have had it so good for song long that I think a lot of people are going to struggle to adapt to their budgets being massively squeezed and a lot of people simply won't adapt or can't. Companies will do what they always do and protect profits over people so it could get real nasty. Personally I am staying out of the markets for a little while.

Yup, just look at the state of the markets today, when compared to some of them mid covid. Tesla hitting $700 after a peak of $1300, Nio hitting $12 after a peak of $56. Coinbase a $320 stock and now $46. the last 2 years has been insane and this correction could be the start of a crash, we might even be in the start of one.
 
Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
13,028
global recession hasn't even begun yet :eek:
Everyone knows this, that's why the markets have gone down the crapper. The price reflects what people think is going to happen in future, not what is happening right now.

I'm gambling on semiconductors being resilient throughout, and recovering strongly...there's too much demand around, even with depressed consumer spending.

I'm hiding from my portfolio and not even looking today, I know it's bad :D
 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
5,504
Location
Leicestershire
IAG - down hard right now (what a yoyo this has been). Lets see if we see signs of that bouncing back up after the summer schedule is sorted and see how many people can afford holidays.

How many will be able to afford holidays but won't go because they see something coming and would rather keep the cash in the bank, I know I would...
 
Associate
Joined
1 Jul 2008
Posts
2,178
Location
Birmingham
How many will be able to afford holidays but won't go because they see something coming and would rather keep the cash in the bank, I know I would...

Good question, of course I don't know the answer to.

Hearing the press, demand is strong as people see holidays as "vital".

Whether they are just ignoring likely rises to come, who knows :)
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
19,689
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
I was wanting to buy tech at least average in, I dont think its bad or failing in its prospects. Anything the world wants increasingly

In 2008 they later revised GDP to reflect that recession started the prior summer in 2007 and nobody realised at that time. Quirky stuff, heres a link for lots of data which may or may not matter: https://www.forexfactory.com/

Lloyds bonds but I notice their yield is close to the shares yield anyway, does this make the bonds cheap then. They can afford to pay and rebuy shares I believe - https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/halifax-13.625-perp-subord-bds-regd-gbp

 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
15 Feb 2003
Posts
9,384
Location
Europe
Global downturn has very much already started but its going to get a lot worse over the next year or so IMO.

People have had it so good for song long that I think a lot of people are going to struggle to adapt to their budgets being massively squeezed and a lot of people simply won't adapt or can't. Companies will do what they always do and protect profits over people so it could get real nasty. Personally I am staying out of the markets for a little while.

So good for so long? It was only in 2008 when their was a major crash, then many years of austerity, no, or poor jobs, and crap wages. No interest if you did have any savings. Curious when it got good.
 
Soldato
Joined
21 Oct 2012
Posts
9,226
Location
London/S Korea
Global downturn has very much already started but its going to get a lot worse over the next year or so IMO.

People have had it so good for song long that I think a lot of people are going to struggle to adapt to their budgets being massively squeezed and a lot of people simply won't adapt or can't. Companies will do what they always do and protect profits over people so it could get real nasty. Personally I am staying out of the markets for a little while.
I’m in agreement. This is a downturn now that started late last year and has gained momentum. There has also been some criticism of the BoE about lack of future guidance on where it expects the base rate to go. With forecasts now predicting 4-5% and inflation issues are going to worsen with supply chain problems for years to come then we are in for a ride. The one thing that is keeping things going is high employment and significant wage inflation but if those start to falter then the stack of cards will come down.
 

fez

fez

Soldato
Joined
22 Aug 2008
Posts
19,564
Location
Tunbridge Wells
So good for so long? It was only in 2008 when their was a major crash, then many years of austerity, no, or poor jobs, and crap wages. No interest if you did have any savings. Curious when it got good.

For most people house prices have been going up, the standard of living has been good and we live in a modern, well equipped society. A lot of people have made a lot of money on the stock market over the past decade or so.

Now we are going to have massive inflation, people losing their jobs en-masse, likely some sort of housing market correction, a huge number of people won't be able to afford to heat their houses and feed their family.

I would say that things were pretty good for most people and now they are not going to be so nice.
 
Caporegime
Joined
13 Jan 2010
Posts
25,463
Location
Llaneirwg
After a sea of red for last few days I did a 3x+ on COIN yesterday. Not much. Only 500. But currently up 30.percent. Hope get a nice surprise on open. Who know. Probably drop back knowing my luck.
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
19,689
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Says PE of 4 for COIN. Could be some things drop so much its just market dynamics. I dont know I want them in particular, I wish I'd shorted some crypto names when I realised the top BTC price had broken up and immediately sold off but thats retrospect

XLK for tech is 42% just MSFT and APPL. Tiny bit one sided but I dont think it does badly year to year. I got a platform that mostly lists ETF, I took some XLE because Ive owned some of those before. Any good ETF I could look at ?

 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
25 Nov 2007
Posts
5,268
Location
London
Just found out you can add your portfolio to google finance, not sure when they added this feature.

vsS-P500.png


YTD (above) +1.14% vs -16.11% (S&P 500 is yellow line)

Bit of a hassle to enter all trades though, its pretty good though.
 
Caporegime
Joined
13 Jan 2010
Posts
25,463
Location
Llaneirwg
A rare day of green

Also
Av forced a share sale to "return capital To investors"
This was annoying. I did not want that back.

So did a 75 percent consolidation reducing my holding from 1670 shares to 1269
And returning 1.01gbp per share via B shares that will be sold for cash (1.7k gbp for me)

That return hasn't arrived yet so to buy back in I had to buy with other funds while these funds are in limbo.

Fortunately the share price was a bit low on the day. It dipped too far. For whatever reason. May have been unrelated. May have caught a few people out. But I got the 1.7k back in at 390 currently at 405.

So I now hold similar amount of shares. But on plus side the dividend has increased.

But wow. What an annoyance it was.
 
Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
13,028
Happy having bought dips on AMD and Intel the last couple of weeks, all green. Sold my nVidia for a modest gain though as it seems to be more prone to falls and less strong upsides in the volatility, and it's generally quite overbought imo.

Pretty sure we haven't seen the bottom anyway, so happy keeping a little powder dry!
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
19,689
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Tech is too hard to judge trading, I'd rather buy a fund or the sector. I sold some xmas, can buy some now imo ; I dont know the bottom but its not too expensive to buy at these levels even NVDA looks close to reasonable comparatively.

I bought Intel and Cisco in the teens years ago and I didnt hold them enough, APPL also I had when it was 'unpopular' as a stock because I realised the people who love apple really love it uniquely and thats valuable, big margins etc. They can falter but overall seems fine past present future. I let these things go too easily, I'd rather be leaning towards buying for the rest of this year. They are global in earnings + growth with currency ultimately weak
 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
20 Dec 2004
Posts
13,028
I had AMD at ~11, but
Tech is too hard to judge trading, I'd rather buy a fund or the sector. I sold some xmas, can buy some now imo ; I dont know the bottom but its not too expensive to buy at these levels even NVDA looks close to reasonable comparatively.

I bought Intel and Cisco in the teens years ago and I didnt hold them enough, APPL also I had when it was 'unpopular' as a stock because I realised the people who love apple really love it uniquely and thats valuable, big margins etc. They can falter but overall seems fine past present future. I let these things go too easily, I'd rather be leaning towards buying for the rest of this year. They are global in earnings + growth with currency ultimately weak
I had AMD at ~$11, sold up when I relocated to simplify moving assets around. Oh well!

Part of me says be happy with this buying opportunity and just don't look until next year. Part of me is pretty sure the markets in general are going to be significantly down from here come the end of the year, so banking some gains off the volatility is the smarter move.
 

SPG

SPG

Soldato
Joined
28 Jul 2010
Posts
8,506
I am still boggled at Rolls Royce being worth next to nothing, I cant wrap my brain around it fully, but still keep buying shares in them, Not going to make anything from a dividend side of things but they are way undervalued and airtravel has to pick up at some point, so could well be a hold onto them till I fancy a new car in 5 or 6 years time.
 
Top Bottom